Cyberpunk 2077 was no flop, nevertheless it actually disrupted CD Projekt’s ahead momentum, inflicting it to postpone Cyberpunk DLC in favor of fixes, and hurting its share worth. However the previous yr of Cyberpunk launch atonement shouldn’t be a part of a long-term scaling again, we realized final week. If something, CD Projekt’s ambition has multiplied: The corporate says it is going to make a Cyberpunk 2077 sequel, launch three new Witcher RPGs over the course of simply six years, make a brand new sport set in a brand new world, and extra.
On the similar time, joint CEO Marcin Iwiński mentioned he’d be stepping down and taking a brand new function on the CD Projekt supervisory board. These bulletins inevitably led to hypothesis that CD Projekt is perhaps an acquisition goal. The speculation goes that its super-ambitious roadmap is both an try to draw massive traders, or a approach to deter a takeover by rising its share worth.
It seems like something is feasible with all the sport studio procuring massive firms like Microsoft have been doing, however trade analyst Rhys Elliott, who works for gaming analysis agency Newzoo (opens in new tab), does not suppose CD Projekt’s daring roadmap justifies any speedy conclusions about its present or future possession.
“Expansive roadmaps are usually not a particular signal of an organization anticipating an acquisition, and we might not wish to speculate about the opportunity of CD Projekt getting acquired,” Elliott instructed PC Gamer.
In keeping with Elliott, it is common for mid-sized builders to have formidable inside roadmaps for the aim of forecasting income and setting deadlines. What is not typical is telling the world about these roadmaps, as CD Projekt has. Elliott thinks the corporate seen that its standing was bettering—significantly after the success of Cyberpunk: Edgerunners on Netflix—and needed to grab the second.
“If [CD Projekt] revealed this roadmap earlier than fixing the state of Cyberpunk 2077, there would have been an outcry from the general public and traders, additional rising unfavourable sentiment across the firm,” Elliot says. “Now that public sentiment across the firm is changing into extra constructive, CD Projekt is hoping to leverage that sentiment and construct off it to fully flip the unfavourable narrative. The inventory market additionally responded positively to the bulletins.”
The CD Projekt share worth has risen by about 28% over the previous month. Elliott thinks traders particularly appreciated the announcement of a non-licensed sport—one CD Projekt will absolutely personal, not like the Cyberpunk and Witcher video games—in addition to the information from earlier this yr that CD Projekt is switching to Unreal Engine 5.
“The corporate desires all to comprehend it has realized from its errors, is doubling down on its most profitable methods, and has many tasks within the pipeline,” says Elliott. “That is music to the ears of traders.”
One other analyst, David Cole of DFC Intelligence (opens in new tab), had the same outlook.
“From my perspective, it looks like the announcement was made to supply present and potential traders confidence that there are various thrilling issues within the works,” mentioned Cole.
However may any of these potential traders be eyeing a controlling curiosity within the firm? Elliott does be aware that Tencent and Savvy Video games Group have each mentioned they wish to make massive acquisitions in Europe.
Savvy Video games Group, which is funded by Saudi Arabia, particularly mentioned it was inquisitive about spending $13 billion on a “main sport writer.” CD Projekt would not value $13 billion, though the fund might be planning a number of acquisitions. It isn’t too arduous to think about CD Projekt below the Xbox banner as a substitute, or experiencing the embrace of Embracer, or changing into a Sony studio, however none of those situations are even rumors we’re listening to. In actual fact, all we have heard on the subject just lately is the opposite joint CEO, Adam Kiciński, saying in a 2021 interview (opens in new tab): “We’ve been repeating for years that we plan to stay unbiased and don’t plan to develop into half of a bigger entity.” (Machine translated from Polish by Google.)
We did not see Microsoft’s Bethesda or Activision Blizzard acquisitions coming, so we’re not ruling something out, however the analysts do not suppose a bunch of sport bulletins is sufficient to go on. Past that, the one hypothesis gasoline is CD Projekt’s depressed share worth (it is up within the quick time period, however has dropped since 2020) and the truth that a number of gaming firms have been acquired just lately.
At present, CD Projekt’s largest single shareholder is Marcin Iwiński, the outgoing co-CEO, who owns 12.78% of the corporate. Adam Kiciński, the opposite CEO, owns 4.02%. The opposite main particular person house owners are Michał Kiciński and Piotr Nielubowicz. The remainder of the shares, 66.04%, are publicly traded.